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Nailed It! Mock NFL Draft Edition

Fans tend to think they can mock draft as well as the pros, but can they really? Troy Monson conducts an experiment to find out.

Fans tend to think they can mock draft as well as the pros, but can they really? Troy Monson conducts an experiment to find out.

Every year when the NFL Draft rolls around, we as fans are bombarded with mock drafts. Everyone from all around seems to produce their own versions, but due to the ever-present nature of ESPN and the NFL Network there are a few well-known “professional mock drafters.” speak of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock.

Another thing that happens every year is the complaining by fans (of which I admit I am a part) about the failures of these professionals. A common complaint usually follows along this train of thought: “I wish I could be paid to watch all that college football and be wrong as often as they are.”

Well, I thought I would take the chance this year to see if we could indeed be able to “be as wrong” as the professionals.

I have included the final version of first round mock drafts from both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay (versions 5.0 and 6.0, respectively), and the only version released by Mike Mayock in the table below. None of the professionals allow for trades when compiling their mocks.

One of our own authors, Joe Mixon, decided to stick his neck out, and see if he could hang with the professionals. Joe created his own mock draft, and I have also included his last version (version 4.0) in the table below. He also did not allow for trades when compiling his mock.

PickTeamMel KiperMike MayockTodd McShayJoe Mixon
1ChiefsEric Fisher, OT Central MichiganEric Fisher, OT Central MichiganEric Fisher, OT Central MichiganLuke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M
2JaguarsLuke Joeckel, OT Texas A&MLuke Joeckel, OT Texas A&MDion Jordan, DE OregonDion Jordan, DE Oregon
3RaidersSharrif Floyd, DT FloridaSharrif Floyd, DT FloridaSharrif Floyd, DT FloridaSharrif Floyd, DT Florida
4EaglesLane Johnson, OT OklahomaLane Johnson, OT OklahomaLane Johnson, OT OklahomaGeno Smith, QB West Virginia
5LionsEzekiel Ansah, DE BYUEzekiel Ansah, DE BYUEzekiel Ansah, DE BYUEzekiel Ansah, DE BYU
6BrownsDee Milliner, CB AlabamaGeno Smith, QB West VirginiaGeno Smith, QB West VirginiaDee Milliner, CB Alabama
7CardinalsDion Jordan, DE OregonJonathan Cooper, OG North CarolinaJonathan Cooper, OG North CarolinaEric Fisher, OT Central Michigan
8BillsJonathan Cooper, OG North CarolinaTavon Austin, WR West VirginiaRyan Nassib, QB SyracuseChance Warmack, OG Alabama
9JetsBarkevious Mingo, DE LSUDion Jordan, DE OregonTyler Eifert, TE Notre DameCordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
10TitansSheldon Richardson, DT MissouriDee Milliner, CB AlabamaDee Milliner, CB AlabamaBarkevious Mingo, DE LSU
11ChargersD.J. Fluker, OT AlabamaChance Warmack, OG AlabamaLuke Joeckel, OT Texas A&MXavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.
12DolphinsChance Warmack, OG AlabamaD.J. Fluker, OT AlabamaD.J. Fluker, OT AlabamaLane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
13JetsTavon Austin, WR West VirginiaTyler Eifert, TE Notre DameChance Warmack, OG AlabamaStar Lotulelei, DT Utah
14PanthersStar Lotulelei, DT UtahSheldon Richardson, DT MissouriStar Lotulelei, DT UtahTavon Austin, WR West Virginia
15SaintsJarvis Jones, OLB GeorgiaBarkevious Mingo, DE LSUBarkevious Mingo, DE LSUJarvis Jones, OLB Georgia
16RamsKenny Vaccaro, SS TexasKenny Vaccaro, SS TexasTavon Austin, WR West VirginiaJonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina
17SteelersTyler Eifert, TE Notre DameJarvis Jones, OLB GeorgiaJarvis Jones, OLB GeorgiaDamontre Moore, OLB Texas A&M
18CowboysSylvester Williams, DT North CarolinaStar Lotulelei, DT UtahSheldon Richardson, DT MissouriBjoern Werner, DE Florida St.
19GiantsD.J. Hayden, CB HoustonJustin Pugh, OT SyracuseBjoern Werner, DE Florida St.Desmond Trufant, CB Washington
20BearsManti Te'o, ILB Notre DameManti Te'o, ILB Notre DameManti Te'o, ILB Notre DameManti Te'o, ILB Notre Dame
21BengalsEddie Lacy, RB AlabamaEric Reid, FS LSUEddie Lacy, RB AlabamaKeenan Allen, WR Cal
22RamsCordarrelle Patterson, WR TennesseeAlec Ogletree, ILB GeorgiaKenny Vaccaro, SS TexasRobert Woods, WR USC
23VikingsRobert Woods, WR USCCordarrelle Patterson, WR TennesseeSylvester Williams, DT North CarolinaDeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
24ColtsXavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.D.J. Hayden, CB HoustonD.J. Hayden, CB HoustonKenny Vaccaro, SS Texas
25VikingsAlec Ogletree, ILB GeorgiaSylvester Williams, DT North CarolinaAlec Ogletree, ILB GeorgiaSheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
26PackersDatone Jones, DE UCLAEddie Lacy, RB AlabamaJustin Pugh, OT SyracuseAlec Ogletree, ILB Georgia
27TexansDeAndre Hopkins, WR ClemsonJustin Hunter, WR TennesseeJustin Hunter, WR TennesseeSylvester Williams, DT North Carolina
28BroncosTank Carradine, DE Florida St.Bjoern Werner, DE Florida St.Datone Jones, DE UCLATyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
29PatriotsDesmond Trufant, CB WashingtonXavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.Alex Okafor, OLB Texas
30FalconsRobert Alford, CB S.E. LouisianaDesmond Trufant, CB WashingtonDesmond Trufant, CB WashingtonJamar Taylor, CB Boise St.
3149ersEric Reid, FS LSUZach Ertz, TE StanfordEric Reid, FS LSUMatt Elam, FS Florida
32RavensKevin Minter, LB LSUMatt Elam, FS FloridaMatt Elam, FS FloridaKevin Minter, ILB LSU

The following table shows the mock draft as compiled by several writers for this site, as well as the actual selections in the first round. When our writers were putting this mock together, trades were openly encouraged.

PickWCSN TeamWCSNActual TeamSelection
1ChiefsLuke Joeckel, OT Texas A&MChiefsEric Fisher, OT Central Michigan
2JaguarsSharrif Floyd, DT FloridaJaguarsLuke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M
3Ravens (from Raiders through Browns)Eric Fisher, OT Central MichiganDolphins (from Raiders)Dion Jordan, DE Oregon
4Chargers (from Eagles)Lane Johnson, OT OklahomaEaglesLane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
5LionsEzekiel Ansah, DE BYULionsEzekiel Ansah, DE BYU
6Raiders (from Browns)Star Lotulelei, DT UtahBrownsBarkevious Mingo, DE LSU
7CardinalsChance Warmack, OG AlabamaCardinalsJonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina
8BillsTavon Austin, WR West VirginiaRams (from Bills)Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
9JetsD.J. Fluker, OT AlabamaJetsDee Milliner, CB Alabama
10TitansBarkevious Mingo, DE LSUTitansChance Warmack, OG Alabama
11Eagles (from Chargers)Dee Milliner, CB AlabamaChargersD.J. Fluker, OT Alabama
12DolphinsDion Jordan, DE OregonRaiders (from Dolphins)D.J. Hayden, CB Houston
13JetsTyler Eifert, TE Notre DameJetsSheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
14PanthersSylvester Williams, DT North CarolinaPanthersStar Lotulelei, DT Utah
15SaintsJarvis Jones, OLB GeorgiaSaintsKenny Vaccaro, SS Texas
16RamsKenny Vaccaro, SS TexasBills (from Rams)E.J. Manuel, QB Florida St.
17SteelersJonathan Cooper, OG North CarolinaSteelersJarvis Jones, OLB Georgia
18CowboysSheldon Richardson, DT Missouri49ers (from Cowboys)Eric Reid, FS LSU
19GiantsBjoern Werner, DE Florida St.GiantsJustin Pugh, OT Syracuse
20Falcons (from Bears)D.J. Hayden, CB HoustonBearsKyle Long, OG Oregon
21BengalsXavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.BengalsTyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
22RamsCordarrelle Patterson, WR TennesseeFalcons (from Rams)Desmond Trufant, CB Washington
23VikingsAlec Ogletree, ILB GeorgiaVikingsSharrif Floyd, DT Florida
24ColtsGeno Smith, QB West VirginiaColtsBjoern Werner, DE Florida St.
25VikingsDesmond Trufant, CB WashingtonVikingsXavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.
26PackersDatone Jones, DE UCLAPackersDatone Jones, DE UCLA
27TexansKyle Long, OG OregonTexansDeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
28BroncosMatt Elam, FS FloridaBroncosSylvester Williams, DT North Carolina
29Jets (from Patriots)Jonathan Cyprien, SS Florida InternationalVikings (from Patriots)Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
30Jaguars (from Falcons through Bears)Menelik Watson, OT Florida St.Rams (from Falcons)Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia
3149ersJesse Williams, DT AlabamaCowboys (from 49ers)Travis Frederick, C Wisconsin
32Browns (from Ravens)Ryan Nassib, QB SyracuseRavensMatt Elam, FS Florida

Scoring

If you want to take the time to look at all the names, and figure out how everyone did, be my guest. I’ll wait.

If you don’t want to do that, then continue reading as I have already done the work. But before we get to the scores, let me post a few quick notes on what I allowed:

Apparently Mike Mayock's reputation as a premier draft analyst is well deserved.

Apparently Mike Mayock’s reputation as a premier draft analyst is well deserved.

  • First (and the most obvious) – If the mock had the correct selection to the correct team in the correct position, it is worth a point.
  • Second – If the mock had the correct selection going to the correct team, but not in the correct position, it is still worth a point. This is because the professionals do not allow for trades to happen but may still have information regarding the player a certain team is targeting.
  • Third – If the mock had the correct selection in the correct position, but to the wrong team, it is worth half of a point.

If you haven’t already done the math in your head, there are 32 available points. With that out of the way, let’s see how everyone did!

  1. Mike Mayock – 11.5 points
  2. Todd McShay – 10 points
  3. Mel Kiper – 9 points
  4. WCSN – 4.5 points
  5. Joe Mixon – 1 point

Analysis

Mike Mayock did the best out of all the mocks I checked, with a total of 11.5 points. He had eight players in the right spot (Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson, Ansah, Cooper, J. Jones, Pugh, and Elam) and three picks in the wrong spot (Ogletree, Patterson, and Trufant). He was the only professional to predict Tavon Austin going 8th.

Todd McShay came in second behind Mayock with his ten points. He had seven players in the right spot (Fisher, Johnson, Ansah, Cooper, Lotulelei, J. Jones, and Elam) and three players in the wrong spot (Austin, Trufant, and Reid).

Mel Kiper scored a total of nine points. However, like Mayock, he had eight players in the correct spot (Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson, Ansah, Fluker, Lotulelei, D. Jones, and Hopkins). His downfall was that he only had one player in the wrong spot in Reid.

Mocking an event as complex as the NFL draft isn't as easy as it looks.

Mocking an event as complex as the NFL draft isn’t as easy as it looks.

Coming in fourth is WCSN, with 4.5 points. We had three players in the correct position (Johnson, Ansah, and D. Jones) and one player in the wrong spot (Jordan). Like Mayock we had Austin going 8th, albeit to a different team.

And bringing up the rear is our very own Joe Mixon, with only one point. His only correct pick was Ziggy Ansah going to the Lions. Still, this was a valiant effort on his part, and I am grateful that he took the time to put these mocks together for us. Better luck next year, Joe!

Recap

Perhaps there is a reason why they’re the professionals (there is – team contacts), and we are the fans. Anyway, this was not a great year for many of the mocks. There were a few trades, some more shocking than others (looking at you Minnesota), and a few reaches (yes, that include the Bears). But overall, this was a fun experiment. If we were to compare these numbers to another sport, Mayock would be batting about .360, McShay at .313, Kiper at .281, WCSN would not even be approaching the Mendoza line with our .141, and Mixon is obviously starting pitcher material, not a hitter, with his .031 average.

Looking at these results, maybe the complainers like myself will not be so quick to call out the professionals. Maybe we can just take the information as it comes and understand that there is a lot more work that goes into it than just watching college football.

(Oh, who am I kidding? I’ll be calling for their heads again next year.)

613 comments
JVince 11
JVince 11

I think the Cardinals and Bengals had GREAT drafts... 

JVince 11
JVince 11

I also cannot believe the BS that GB is apparently shopping Desmond Bishop right now?? So we are looking to trade out best playmaker in our LB corps besides Matthews? Really?  HE is our best blitzer and our best coverage guy.  Not to mention we just released DJ Smith because the GB doctors saw his injury as career-threatening.  Maybe Bishop's constant hamstring tweeks and eventual full tear from last season now has them thinking career-threatening as well.  I do NOT think that Jones and Hawk are championship caliber defense MLBs in a 3-4 scheme.. Nope.. NUH UH!

JVince 11
JVince 11

I actually really liked how hte Packers draft finished out... I finally think that GB has committed to the running game in order to finally stop Rodgers from getting hit 50 times a game...  I think that GB has addressed the biggest concern that will then fully help the passing game be more effective and not allow defenses to play Cover 2 shell the entire game.  


The OL were very versatile guys who can play both G and T... It just adds more competition.  It has been mentioned that the Colorado kid was drafted because GB wants Newhouse gone and don't think he is worth the depth chart either.


The LB from Illinois State.. I didn't know much about and he was interviewed and said that he was watching the draft as a fan and wasn't expectd to be drafted and then he was and was shocked.  I talked to a few of my Northern Iowa OL brothers who play in the same conference and said that "he is big... he is black.. he is an athlete.. and he has dreads" TT's outlook "HOME RUN HALL OF FAME PLAYER!"


I have heard that the 2 big and fast WRs were solid picks as well.  The one pick was considered to be a 4th rounder at one time.  I like adding more competition to Boykin and Ross for that 4th WR job.  

JVince 11
JVince 11

I hate it that Green Bay drafted another Iowa Hawkeye.... those fucking brainless, dickless, snake kissing, dirt eating, sacks of monkey shit.

JVince 11
JVince 11

Male and female dick leafs.... good morning...

Nardo - One Week Seahawks Fan
Nardo - One Week Seahawks Fan

Me and Acid were jabbing back and forth yesterday about the drafts.  He thinks the Packers' draft was awesome and the Bears' was shit.  I simply said, "how do you know that?"  He was in homer mode though.

 ✔

Someone said Prisco.  CHFF's draft picking monkey beat Prisco two years running.

bp.
bp.

"Jets release Tebow after just one season."

So, ESPN has moved all the way to "opinion headlines?"

AndrewLeT
AndrewLeT

With tebow being released where do you see the circus stopping next?

AndrewLeT
AndrewLeT

Pete Prisco gave the packers a C- for the draft (lowest in the league)  I normally don't put stock into this shit, but since it was written by prisco every one of these picks better become all pros

MIBearFan
MIBearFan

Would it make a difference if I used Capitals, bold.of italics?

ShHITfuckTONStonsshIT ToN fUcK Ton
You get the idea.

JVince 11
JVince 11

Even if the guy can play both CB and Safety... and won the Big 10 DB of the year.

AndrewLeT
AndrewLeT

@Mr._Horse that was me.  i hate all these fucking experts trying to grade a draft when i'm sure so many gave the chargers an A the year they draft Leaf.  if they want to grade something grade the 2011 draft during this years draft.