Nailed It! Mock NFL Draft Edition
- Updated: April 27, 2013
Every year when the NFL Draft rolls around, we as fans are bombarded with mock drafts. Everyone from all around seems to produce their own versions, but due to the ever-present nature of ESPN and the NFL Network there are a few well-known “professional mock drafters.” speak of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock.
Another thing that happens every year is the complaining by fans (of which I admit I am a part) about the failures of these professionals. A common complaint usually follows along this train of thought: “I wish I could be paid to watch all that college football and be wrong as often as they are.”
Well, I thought I would take the chance this year to see if we could indeed be able to “be as wrong” as the professionals.
I have included the final version of first round mock drafts from both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay (versions 5.0 and 6.0, respectively), and the only version released by Mike Mayock in the table below. None of the professionals allow for trades when compiling their mocks.
One of our own authors, Joe Mixon, decided to stick his neck out, and see if he could hang with the professionals. Joe created his own mock draft, and I have also included his last version (version 4.0) in the table below. He also did not allow for trades when compiling his mock.
|Pick||Team||Mel Kiper||Mike Mayock||Todd McShay||Joe Mixon|
|1||Chiefs||Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan||Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan||Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan||Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M|
|2||Jaguars||Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M||Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M||Dion Jordan, DE Oregon||Dion Jordan, DE Oregon|
|3||Raiders||Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida||Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida||Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida||Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida|
|4||Eagles||Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma||Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma||Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma||Geno Smith, QB West Virginia|
|5||Lions||Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU||Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU||Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU||Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU|
|6||Browns||Dee Milliner, CB Alabama||Geno Smith, QB West Virginia||Geno Smith, QB West Virginia||Dee Milliner, CB Alabama|
|7||Cardinals||Dion Jordan, DE Oregon||Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina||Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina||Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan|
|8||Bills||Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina||Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia||Ryan Nassib, QB Syracuse||Chance Warmack, OG Alabama|
|9||Jets||Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU||Dion Jordan, DE Oregon||Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame||Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee|
|10||Titans||Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri||Dee Milliner, CB Alabama||Dee Milliner, CB Alabama||Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU|
|11||Chargers||D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama||Chance Warmack, OG Alabama||Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M||Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.|
|12||Dolphins||Chance Warmack, OG Alabama||D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama||D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama||Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma|
|13||Jets||Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia||Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame||Chance Warmack, OG Alabama||Star Lotulelei, DT Utah|
|14||Panthers||Star Lotulelei, DT Utah||Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri||Star Lotulelei, DT Utah||Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia|
|15||Saints||Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia||Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU||Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU||Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia|
|16||Rams||Kenny Vaccaro, SS Texas||Kenny Vaccaro, SS Texas||Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia||Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina|
|17||Steelers||Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame||Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia||Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia||Damontre Moore, OLB Texas A&M|
|18||Cowboys||Sylvester Williams, DT North Carolina||Star Lotulelei, DT Utah||Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri||Bjoern Werner, DE Florida St.|
|19||Giants||D.J. Hayden, CB Houston||Justin Pugh, OT Syracuse||Bjoern Werner, DE Florida St.||Desmond Trufant, CB Washington|
|20||Bears||Manti Te'o, ILB Notre Dame||Manti Te'o, ILB Notre Dame||Manti Te'o, ILB Notre Dame||Manti Te'o, ILB Notre Dame|
|21||Bengals||Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama||Eric Reid, FS LSU||Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama||Keenan Allen, WR Cal|
|22||Rams||Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee||Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia||Kenny Vaccaro, SS Texas||Robert Woods, WR USC|
|23||Vikings||Robert Woods, WR USC||Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee||Sylvester Williams, DT North Carolina||DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson|
|24||Colts||Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.||D.J. Hayden, CB Houston||D.J. Hayden, CB Houston||Kenny Vaccaro, SS Texas|
|25||Vikings||Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia||Sylvester Williams, DT North Carolina||Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia||Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri|
|26||Packers||Datone Jones, DE UCLA||Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama||Justin Pugh, OT Syracuse||Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia|
|27||Texans||DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson||Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee||Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee||Sylvester Williams, DT North Carolina|
|28||Broncos||Tank Carradine, DE Florida St.||Bjoern Werner, DE Florida St.||Datone Jones, DE UCLA||Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame|
|29||Patriots||Desmond Trufant, CB Washington||Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.||Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.||Alex Okafor, OLB Texas|
|30||Falcons||Robert Alford, CB S.E. Louisiana||Desmond Trufant, CB Washington||Desmond Trufant, CB Washington||Jamar Taylor, CB Boise St.|
|31||49ers||Eric Reid, FS LSU||Zach Ertz, TE Stanford||Eric Reid, FS LSU||Matt Elam, FS Florida|
|32||Ravens||Kevin Minter, LB LSU||Matt Elam, FS Florida||Matt Elam, FS Florida||Kevin Minter, ILB LSU|
The following table shows the mock draft as compiled by several writers for this site, as well as the actual selections in the first round. When our writers were putting this mock together, trades were openly encouraged.
|Pick||WCSN Team||WCSN||Actual Team||Selection|
|1||Chiefs||Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M||Chiefs||Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan|
|2||Jaguars||Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida||Jaguars||Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M|
|3||Ravens (from Raiders through Browns)||Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan||Dolphins (from Raiders)||Dion Jordan, DE Oregon|
|4||Chargers (from Eagles)||Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma||Eagles||Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma|
|5||Lions||Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU||Lions||Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU|
|6||Raiders (from Browns)||Star Lotulelei, DT Utah||Browns||Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU|
|7||Cardinals||Chance Warmack, OG Alabama||Cardinals||Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina|
|8||Bills||Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia||Rams (from Bills)||Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia|
|9||Jets||D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama||Jets||Dee Milliner, CB Alabama|
|10||Titans||Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU||Titans||Chance Warmack, OG Alabama|
|11||Eagles (from Chargers)||Dee Milliner, CB Alabama||Chargers||D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama|
|12||Dolphins||Dion Jordan, DE Oregon||Raiders (from Dolphins)||D.J. Hayden, CB Houston|
|13||Jets||Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame||Jets||Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri|
|14||Panthers||Sylvester Williams, DT North Carolina||Panthers||Star Lotulelei, DT Utah|
|15||Saints||Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia||Saints||Kenny Vaccaro, SS Texas|
|16||Rams||Kenny Vaccaro, SS Texas||Bills (from Rams)||E.J. Manuel, QB Florida St.|
|17||Steelers||Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina||Steelers||Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia|
|18||Cowboys||Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri||49ers (from Cowboys)||Eric Reid, FS LSU|
|19||Giants||Bjoern Werner, DE Florida St.||Giants||Justin Pugh, OT Syracuse|
|20||Falcons (from Bears)||D.J. Hayden, CB Houston||Bears||Kyle Long, OG Oregon|
|21||Bengals||Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.||Bengals||Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame|
|22||Rams||Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee||Falcons (from Rams)||Desmond Trufant, CB Washington|
|23||Vikings||Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia||Vikings||Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida|
|24||Colts||Geno Smith, QB West Virginia||Colts||Bjoern Werner, DE Florida St.|
|25||Vikings||Desmond Trufant, CB Washington||Vikings||Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida St.|
|26||Packers||Datone Jones, DE UCLA||Packers||Datone Jones, DE UCLA|
|27||Texans||Kyle Long, OG Oregon||Texans||DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson|
|28||Broncos||Matt Elam, FS Florida||Broncos||Sylvester Williams, DT North Carolina|
|29||Jets (from Patriots)||Jonathan Cyprien, SS Florida International||Vikings (from Patriots)||Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee|
|30||Jaguars (from Falcons through Bears)||Menelik Watson, OT Florida St.||Rams (from Falcons)||Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia|
|31||49ers||Jesse Williams, DT Alabama||Cowboys (from 49ers)||Travis Frederick, C Wisconsin|
|32||Browns (from Ravens)||Ryan Nassib, QB Syracuse||Ravens||Matt Elam, FS Florida|
If you want to take the time to look at all the names, and figure out how everyone did, be my guest. I’ll wait.
If you don’t want to do that, then continue reading as I have already done the work. But before we get to the scores, let me post a few quick notes on what I allowed:
- First (and the most obvious) – If the mock had the correct selection to the correct team in the correct position, it is worth a point.
- Second – If the mock had the correct selection going to the correct team, but not in the correct position, it is still worth a point. This is because the professionals do not allow for trades to happen but may still have information regarding the player a certain team is targeting.
- Third – If the mock had the correct selection in the correct position, but to the wrong team, it is worth half of a point.
If you haven’t already done the math in your head, there are 32 available points. With that out of the way, let’s see how everyone did!
- Mike Mayock – 11.5 points
- Todd McShay – 10 points
- Mel Kiper – 9 points
- WCSN – 4.5 points
- Joe Mixon – 1 point
Mike Mayock did the best out of all the mocks I checked, with a total of 11.5 points. He had eight players in the right spot (Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson, Ansah, Cooper, J. Jones, Pugh, and Elam) and three picks in the wrong spot (Ogletree, Patterson, and Trufant). He was the only professional to predict Tavon Austin going 8th.
Todd McShay came in second behind Mayock with his ten points. He had seven players in the right spot (Fisher, Johnson, Ansah, Cooper, Lotulelei, J. Jones, and Elam) and three players in the wrong spot (Austin, Trufant, and Reid).
Mel Kiper scored a total of nine points. However, like Mayock, he had eight players in the correct spot (Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson, Ansah, Fluker, Lotulelei, D. Jones, and Hopkins). His downfall was that he only had one player in the wrong spot in Reid.
Coming in fourth is WCSN, with 4.5 points. We had three players in the correct position (Johnson, Ansah, and D. Jones) and one player in the wrong spot (Jordan). Like Mayock we had Austin going 8th, albeit to a different team.
And bringing up the rear is our very own Joe Mixon, with only one point. His only correct pick was Ziggy Ansah going to the Lions. Still, this was a valiant effort on his part, and I am grateful that he took the time to put these mocks together for us. Better luck next year, Joe!
Perhaps there is a reason why they’re the professionals (there is – team contacts), and we are the fans. Anyway, this was not a great year for many of the mocks. There were a few trades, some more shocking than others (looking at you Minnesota), and a few reaches (yes, that include the Bears). But overall, this was a fun experiment. If we were to compare these numbers to another sport, Mayock would be batting about .360, McShay at .313, Kiper at .281, WCSN would not even be approaching the Mendoza line with our .141, and Mixon is obviously starting pitcher material, not a hitter, with his .031 average.
Looking at these results, maybe the complainers like myself will not be so quick to call out the professionals. Maybe we can just take the information as it comes and understand that there is a lot more work that goes into it than just watching college football.
(Oh, who am I kidding? I’ll be calling for their heads again next year.)
I also cannot believe the BS that GB is apparently shopping Desmond Bishop right now?? So we are looking to trade out best playmaker in our LB corps besides Matthews? Really? HE is our best blitzer and our best coverage guy. Not to mention we just released DJ Smith because the GB doctors saw his injury as career-threatening. Maybe Bishop's constant hamstring tweeks and eventual full tear from last season now has them thinking career-threatening as well. I do NOT think that Jones and Hawk are championship caliber defense MLBs in a 3-4 scheme.. Nope.. NUH UH!
I actually really liked how hte Packers draft finished out... I finally think that GB has committed to the running game in order to finally stop Rodgers from getting hit 50 times a game... I think that GB has addressed the biggest concern that will then fully help the passing game be more effective and not allow defenses to play Cover 2 shell the entire game.
The OL were very versatile guys who can play both G and T... It just adds more competition. It has been mentioned that the Colorado kid was drafted because GB wants Newhouse gone and don't think he is worth the depth chart either.
The LB from Illinois State.. I didn't know much about and he was interviewed and said that he was watching the draft as a fan and wasn't expectd to be drafted and then he was and was shocked. I talked to a few of my Northern Iowa OL brothers who play in the same conference and said that "he is big... he is black.. he is an athlete.. and he has dreads" TT's outlook "HOME RUN HALL OF FAME PLAYER!"
I have heard that the 2 big and fast WRs were solid picks as well. The one pick was considered to be a 4th rounder at one time. I like adding more competition to Boykin and Ross for that 4th WR job.
I hate it that Green Bay drafted another Iowa Hawkeye.... those fucking brainless, dickless, snake kissing, dirt eating, sacks of monkey shit.
Me and Acid were jabbing back and forth yesterday about the drafts. He thinks the Packers' draft was awesome and the Bears' was shit. I simply said, "how do you know that?" He was in homer mode though.
Man this acid is shit... oh wait
Pete Prisco gave the packers a C- for the draft (lowest in the league) I normally don't put stock into this shit, but since it was written by prisco every one of these picks better become all pros
So yeah, That was all. Later.
Just wanted to stop by to say how awesome this site is.
Cheers. You guys deserve a toast and a gif slow clap.
Would it make a difference if I used Capitals, bold.of italics?ShHITfuckTONStonsshIT ToN fUcK Ton
You get the idea.
@Draji, the D is silent Morning Raji and thank you!
@andylet445 Is this a live camera??? she just keeps going and going.
@andylet445 Shit I do 50 of those a day. Damn how many is she going to do!?!?!? LOL..........
@JVince 11 Preach on brother! Go Cyclones!
@JVince 11 morning singing seaman
@JVince 11 Morning
@niemerg1 I don't care for his policies but he does have a good sense of humor.
@Nard-Dog Packers draft does not seem like many help me now kind of guys.
@Mr._Horse that was me. i hate all these fucking experts trying to grade a draft when i'm sure so many gave the chargers an A the year they draft Leaf. if they want to grade something grade the 2011 draft during this years draft.
@Nard-Dog morning skank
@___bp___ just? wtf is wrong with some people...
@Sweet melt you bitch will this be your last test?
@Draji, the D is silent Lacy was a risky pick, but Prisco is usually terrible in general.