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2013 Detroit Lions Predictions: Part 1

95558256_crop_650x440I must be a masochist, because I’m back with more predictions. This 2013 season I will be doing two prediction articles, since you loved the first one so much in 2012. The second part of this series will be overall team predictions (records, comparisons to other North teams, stats, and rankings in the league) similar to last year’s article format. This article will focus more on individual predictions for Lions players, with some team predictions. Any predictions that I feel are bold will be in bold. Any non-bold are just regular old predictions. Let’s get to it!

Turnover/Special Team Return TDs

This was my hot topic for the offseason. Watching the games, I noticed and described to you many “flukes” Detroit had in the turnover department. Detroit had 33 turnovers allowed in 2012 while only forcing 17 turnovers. Six of those turnovers allowed went directly for points against Detroit, and other turnovers set up 55 points in short field positions which opponents started within field goal range (39 or in). Plus, Detroit allowed 4 special team return TDs over a two game span, resulting in two losses.

Prediction: Detroit will force 28 turnovers (11 more than 2012) and allow 23 turnovers (10 less than 2012). This is a +5 average differential over the last 3 years (+4,+11,-16 respectively). Detroit will force 20 picks and recover 8 fumbles. Stafford will have 13 picks and the Lions will lose 10 fumbles. Detroit will force turnovers for direct TDs three times (4,7,0 last 3 years) and allow five TDs from turnovers/special teams(4,6,10 last 3 years). This is a -2 differential (-10 in 2012).

Offensive Points Per Game

Detroit scored 23.3 PPG offensively in 2012, with only four short field positions given to them. They had 8 long drives where they reached the opponents redzone, but came up with 0 points due to six turnovers and two turnovers-on-downs in 2012.

Prediction: In 2013, with the additions of Reggie Bush, a healthy Burleson, a healthy Broyles, first-round LT Riley Reiff and guard Larry Warford, Detroit will score 28 offensive PPG. They will have 22.5 PPG on long field offensive drives, similar to 2011/2012, they will get 21 points from the three defensive TDs I predicted, and they will score 68 points from 12 short fields (8 TDs and 4 FGs).

Defensive Points Per Game

Detroit allowed 18.75 PPG, 18.18 PPG and 19.0625 PPG on long-field defensive drives the last three years. This becomes 23.1 PPG, 24.2 PPG and 27.3 PPG allowed when you factor in offensive turnovers for TDs, short fields, and special team returns allowed.

Detroit has added four talented DEs in Ziggy Ansah (top 5 pick), LDE Jason Jones, former Bear Israel Idonije, and rookie Devin Taylor that all fit the wide 9 scheme perfectly. They will also have Ashlee Palmer, who is better in coverage than Durant (-4.3 in 2012), a hopefully healthy Louis Delmas (Gunther is praying for it), a healthy Dwight Bentley, rookie 2nd round pick Darius Slay, and a good safety in Glover Quin . These new additions will fit nicely with DTs Suh, Fairley, Tulloch, Levy, and number 1 CB Chris Houston.

Prediction: They will give up only 17 PPG on long-field defensive drives, 35 points from turnovers/special team returns (5 TDs), and allow 55 points on short fields (54 and 55 the last 2 years). This totals to 22.6 PPG allowed. Solid defense.

Offensive Tackle Protection

Detroit will have two new starting offensive tackles in 2013. 1st round pick Riley Reiff at Left Tackle, and either one of Lion veterans Jason Fox or Corey Hilliard at Right Tackle.

In 2012, Backus and Reiff combined for 1 sack, 5 hits, and 39 QB hurries, and Gosder had 4 sacks, 7 hits and 27 hurries, for a total of 5 sacks, 12 hits and 66 hurries in 740 passing attempts from Stafford/Hill.

In 2011, Backus and Hilliard combined for 7 sacks, 4 hits and 36 hurries at LT. Gosder/Hilliard combined for 10 sacks, 19 hits and 28 hurries in the regular season. The total was 17 sacks, 23 hits and 74 hurries in 666 pass attempts from Stafford/Hill, which was much worse than 2012 with less attempts. This is due to Gosder playing much better in 2012 in a contract year and Backus having a rough start in 2011.

Prediction: The 2013 tackle situation of Riley Reiff and Fox/Hilliard will do slightly better than the poor 2011 numbers. 15 sacks, 16 hits and 68 hurries in 650 pass attempts for the new tackles barring major injury to Reiff. This, plus the shorter fields from turnovers and better field positions, will aid the 28 PPG for Detroit I mentioned above.

Interior Pass Protection

The interior of Detroit’s Offensive Line was made of the same personnel (Sims, Raiola, Peterman) the last 2 years. 2011 they allowed only 7 sacks, 12 QB hits, and 34 hurries, protecting Stafford well despite poor tackle protection at times in 666 attempts. In 2012, Detroit’s interior allowed 8 sacks, 7 hits, and 74 hurries (40 more than the prior year) in 740 attempts. This led to more side-arm throws from Stafford and worse protection even though the tackles were playing really well in 2012. Interior pressure is worse than tackle pressure.

Prediction: Detroit gives up 7 sacks, 10 QB hits, and 45 hurries in 660 attempts for much better interior protection with Stephen Peterman (5, 4, 37 hurries in 2012) gone and the addition of rookie 3rd round guard Larry Warford.

DE Pressure

It was night and day between Detroit’s 2011 and 2012 Defensive End performance. They had the same four Defensive Ends in Avril, KVB, Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young. In 2011 (using PFF sacks) they combined for 26 sacks, 21 hits and 92 hurries. It was a great year by Detroit’s DEs, (aiding 126 turnover/short field points) and earned Avril the franchise tag with an 11 sack, 8 hit and 31 hurry performance.

In 2012, the train fell off the tracks with the same four DEs. Detroit combined for 17 sacks, 26 hits and 54 hurries. Nine less sacks, five more hits and 38 less hurries. This terrible performance produced an overhaul of four new DEs for Detroit, along with Avril’s contract situation.

Prediction: Split the difference: 23 sacks, 23 hits and 77 hurries in 2013 for the new DEs(including Idonije), with Willie Young finally back to the 2011 Willie Young. Solid upgrade but not quite 2011 performance. Much better run defense from the Lions 4 DEs in 2013.

DT Pressure

Suh and Fairley were top-5 DTs per PFF, and for good reason. They both had very good pass pressure years in 2012. Sammie Lee Hill is gone but the Lions added a good veteran in DT CJ Mosely. The three combined for 14 sacks, 30 hits and 67 hurries in 2012. The Lions can also rotate Idonije or Jason Jones in instead of watching Corey Williams on the bench.

Prediction: Detroit Lions DT match their 2012 performance. 14 sacks, 30 hits and 67 hurries from the top 3 DTs. This performance plus the Lions new DEs splitting the difference between 2011/2012 will result in bad bad things for opposing QBs of the Lions.

Matthew “Man Cans” Stafford

Stafford was good in 2012, but it didn’t show in the stat sheet like it did in 2011 when he was elite in my opinion. Stafford had 10 less short fields to work with in 2012 compared to 2011 (4 from 14), and his team let him down with a number of flukey fumbles (16 from 7 in 2011), poor run blocking, poor interior pass protection, wrong routes run (cough Durham), and poor game situations playing from behind in obvious passing situations.

In 2012, Stafford had 435 completions from 727 attempts, giving him a 59.8% completion rate. He garnered 20 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs, and 17 picks in 2012. Sean Hill added 2 TDs as well.

In 2011, Stafford’s stats were 421/663, 63.5%, 41 TDs, and 16 picks. Elite.

Prediction: In 2013, Stafford gets back on track with 416 completions from 650 attempts, a 64% completion rate, 4,800 yards, 32 TDs and 13 picks for Stafford.

This will lead Detroit to a very good record. Stay tuned for part 2 for that compared to the North.

Will Calvin Johnson be able to put the Lions’ yardage production on his back again in 2012? Or will it be more spread out among the rest of the Lions’ Depth Chart?

WR Production

In 2012, Megatron broke the yardage record but only had 5 TDs and the rest of the WR/TE/RB group either got injured or went insane.

Prediction: 

Out of Stafford’s 4,800 yards and 32 TDs, the receivers will achieve the following stats:

Calvin will have 1,600 yards and 12 TDs. Broyles will hustle for 800 yards and 5 TDs. Pettigrew will accrue 700 yards and 5 TDs. Bush will grab 450 yards and 3 TDs. Burleson will nab 650 yards and 4 TDs. Scheffler will shuffle for 300 yards and 2 TDs. The rest will gain 300 yards and 1 TD.

Running Backs

The Lions added Reggie Bush in the offseason to replace the unfortunate Jahvid Best. Riley Reiff should be a better run blocker than Jeff Backus, who was horrendous in 2012, and Larry Warford is a mauler who should upgrade over Stephen Peterman. Raiola, Sims and Pettigrew can all block better, and the speed of Bush will help especially if in only 6% of snaps Detroit faces 8 in the box again like in 2012. LeShoure is two years removed from the Achilles injury and hopefully does not have a groin injury like he did starting midseason in 2012, or is banned from any games for off-field issues.

Prediction: Bush 4.5 YPC, LeShoure 4.2 YPC, and Bell 4.5 YPC. 17 rushing TDs again for Detroit.

Specialists

The Lions lost a legend in Jason Hanson. He will be missed.

Prediction: Akers will have 85% accuracy with field goals. He’s recovered from his groin and hip injury from 2012 and with the addition of moving indoors more, he’s bound to improve. Sam Martin will be top-15 in punting average. Field position definitely matters.

Summary

These are my individual Lions predictions. I urge you to discuss the probability of these predictions with me. They are all based on historical data and assessment of Detroit’s talent. We’ll see if I fair better in 2013 than I did in 2012. The Bold Predictions: 2013 Edition, comparing Detroit’s record to the rest of the North, will be out in August.

1099 comments
sgunderson17
sgunderson17

*starts rubbing poop on the walls*

DAMNIT BP!

G & G
G & G moderator

HAhahaahahahah!!

This fucking team really sucks!!!

LKP
LKP

26.6 PPG offensively wiht Calvin in 14 games. Predicted 28 PPG. Bush missing 2.5, Pettigrew missing 2, Burleson 7, Broyles 9. Damn close.

So really turnovers and DE sacks only thing missed.

LKP
LKP

23.5 def PPG, predcited 22.6. Not bad, the picks and fumble for TD hurt. Plus 16 points of garbage points by the Bears in Week 4. So spot on

LKP
LKP

DE hits and hurries surpassed. DE sacks short. Jones most of year hurt that.

LKP
LKP

And Stafford if he had the proper drop rate, got the comp % right too

LKP
LKP

Nailed Calvin prediciton.

Oline even better than I said

LKP
LKP

And with Burleson, Pettigrew and Broyles getting hurt. Kind of screws that.

LKP
LKP

Got punting right easily

LKP
LKP

Turnovers are what screwed me. 19 picks instead of 13. Was looking good the first 10 games 21 TDs and 8 picks for stafford. Then disaster

LKP
LKP

26.6 PPG with Calvin, 31 TDs damn close. 15 rushing TDS, damn close, Bush YPC spot on

gatrbuc17
gatrbuc17 moderator

Dudes not much sux as bad as your little one being sick. My son's fever has reached 104. Time to go to the Clinic.

knnyb65
knnyb65

This is a tricky schedule for the Lions this year...I can see them going anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6. If they win at home, split the division record, and sneak a win in Philly or at the Steelers they win 10...but lots of ifs...lol.


LKP
LKP

Can't wait until these probabe predicitions come true and you are all eating crow in 2013. Boombaya

JVince 11
JVince 11

So last night I went out to eat... We ordered our food and the whole 9 yards.. well I had ordered a cup of jalapeno bacon and cheddar soup first....


so I told the waitress that some silverware would come real handy about right now.. she said "wait you dont like to eat your pizza with your hands?"  "I said oh no I do really like to eat pizza with my hands but a spoon comes in real fucking handy with soup"

Maized and Confused
Maized and Confused

Here's an example:

He's the paragraph I had to write for his article up above:

Out of Stafford’s 4,800 yards and 32 TDs, the receivers will achieve the following stats:

Calvin will have 1,600 yards and 12 TDs. Broyles will hustle for 800 yards and 5 TDs. Pettigrew will accrue 700 yards and 5 TDs. Bush will grab 450 yards and 3 TDs. Burleson will nab 650 yards and 4 TDs. Scheffler will shuffle for 300 yards and 2 TDs. The rest will gain 300 yards and 1 TD.

MIBearFan
MIBearFan moderator

@Preparation_A  

Don't worry about your writing on my account. I'm not even going to read it.

MIBearFan
MIBearFan moderator

You forgot to mention your boner.

Maized and Confused
Maized and Confused

Here's the paragraph HE wrote:

Out of Stafford’s 4,800 yards and 32 TDs:

Calvin 1,600 yards 12 TDs, Broyles  800 yards 5 TDs, Pettigrew  700 yards 5 TDs, Bush  450 yards 3 TDs, Burleson  650 yards 4 TDs. Scheffler 300 yards 2 TDs. The rest  300 yards  1 TD.

niemerg1
niemerg1

@Preparation_A @niemerg1 no, i didn't. was it good?


For the longest time, i didn't have a very high opinion of eisenhower because of the shaw coup...but then i recently found out that it was planned under Truman, and he just didn't stop it. It happened like 2 months into his first term and he didn't want to rock the boat too much

G & G
G & G moderator

@Preparation_A

Fuck!! I was watching the NFL Top 100 (Stupid Fucking Show)