Handicapping the race to Brett Favre’s records
- Updated: September 30, 2013
Aaron [Rodgers] has played extremely well, probably even better than anyone anticipated, but I knew he was capable of that and that’s why they drafted him. Barring any injury, he’ll shatter everything I ever did there except for maybe consecutive games.
— Brett Favre
In the first half of this series, we pointed out that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers seems to be on a trajectory of improvement year after year that makes it difficult to predict when he might level off.
At the same time, if Rodgers has his eyes set on the title of greatest quarterback in Packers franchise history, he might be better off playing with a stronger defense and running game instead of posting such eye-popping personal statistics. Rightly or wrongly, great quarterbacks are judged by their Super Bowl victories, and to this point, Rodgers still only has one ring.
That being said, how realistic is it to think that, as Rodgers’ predecessor Brett Favre himself put it, Rodgers might in fact “shatter” Favre’s gaudy records?
On the one hand, Rodgers already seems to have a lock on the career NFL efficiency records in both the regular and postseason.
On the other hand, Favre currently holds some 30 NFL regular-season records and close to 20 in the post season. Not all of these records are laudable or desirable, of course. It’s doubtful anyone wants Rodgers to threaten the sacks or interceptions records.
In this piece, we will focus on the more noteworthy records, the ones Rodgers might actually want to break. To handicap this race, we will assume that the quarterbacks in this contest — Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Rodgers himself — are able to sustain the average performance of their most recent three full seasons.
The numbers in parentheses are Favre’s current records.
Aaron Rodgers, who turns 30 later this year, has attempted 2,787 passes and completed 1,833 in a little over five complete seasons of play. At his current rate, Rodgers needs 13 more seasons to hit the completions figure and possibly even more to hit the attempts figure. This would require a degree of unbalanced offensive play calling that would probably not be healthy for the Packers’ win prospects.
At 37 years of age and with 14.25 seasons of playing time under his belt, Peyton Manning has attempted 7,949 passes and completed 5,199 in 14 years. He will need three or four more years to hit the completions mark and possibly another year to a year more to attain the attempts mark.
Drew Brees, now 34, has 6,276 attempts and 4,116 completions, so he needs probably another five or six years to be in contention. We can forget about Tom Brady, who is already 36 and only has 6,116 attempts against 3,891 completions.
Unless Manning plays another four years (and with the season he’s having so far, why wouldn’t he?), it’s likely that Brees is the only candidate with a legitimate chance of breaking these records.
This record is more interesting.
At his current pace, Rodgers (179) could surpass the touchdowns record in less than 10 years. But again, if the Packers are to attain a more balanced offensive style, it would be better for Rodgers to ease back on his torrid pace. Even so, he could still break this record within the next 12 years.
Manning is on fire this year, having already thrown 16 touchdowns through four games to bring his career total to 452. He could easily eclipse the record within three seasons.
Brady currently sits at 341 touchdown passes and potentially move ahead of this record in about six years. Brees has thrown 330 touchdowns and could set the record within five years.
It’s hard to make projections at this point, since the record could conceivably be reset twice — and significantly higher — before Rodgers has a stab at it.
Dan Marino held the career-wins record at 147 for years until John Elway passed him at 148. Favre took control in 2007 and tacked on another 38 wins over the next few years.
Rodgers sits at 53 wins and would need another 13 seasons to surpass Favre. If he averages only 10 wins a season, it will take him 15 years. Having sat on the bench for three years probably puts this record out of Rodgers’ reach. The same can probably be said of Brees, who only has 102 wins.
In the interim, other quarterbacks could easily push the record higher. Manning (158 wins) could overtake the record within three years, while Brady (140) needs only about four years to get there.
It looks like Brady might own this record when it’s all said and done.
Think about that for a second: Brett Favre passed for 41 miles in his career!
Rodgers has passed for 22,718 yards in his career and will need at least 11 to 12 years to get into contention. That is so farfetched that it’s not worth even considering at this point.
Manning has accumulated 60,957 passing yards and could probably pass Favre in three years or less. Likewise, we can’t ignore Brees, who has posted back-to-back 5,000-yard seasons and has 46,940 yards in the bank. Even at his torrid pace, though, he is looking at another five or six years.
For his part, Brady (45,820 yards) likely needs six or more years to surpass Favre’s mark.
It would appear that, barring injury, this is Manning’s record to seize and probably Brees’ to hold for the longterm.
Although Brett Favre’s words were well chosen in an attempt to heal old wounds, the reality is that Peyton Manning, followed shortly thereafter by Drew Brees, are more likely candidates to take and hold Favre’s records. Aaron Rodgers seems like a long shot to hold most of these cumulative marks.
Then again, no one one ever expected Favre to have the kind of longevity he enjoyed. So as unlikely as Rodgers’ chances seem right now, it’s entirely possible he might make it there one day. He just doesn’t seem like the kind of quarterback who has enough of a chip on his shoulder to sustain that kind of quest.
At least one thing is clear from all this: Eddie Lacy is not fat.
new post. i dont approve of title...we are the falcons! not eagles lol
this video is crazy. I would have ran every one of those cocksuckers over
"Yesterday (9/29), A large group of motorcycles surrounded a guy in an SUV in New York and then when he bumped into one of them because the cyclists stopped short......they started to attack his SUV with his wife and child inside. He took off, ran over a couple cycles and a chase ensued. The SUV driver ended up going to the hospital for several facial lacerations because they smashed in his window. They and also tried to smash the window where the baby was sitting"
As a Federal employee I am quite familiar with what's happening and has been. Like I said I am "essential" so i'll get paid, most people sent home with nothing./
in the end it will change nothing. after all is said and done, nobody will give a shit about politics and realize what is going on in this country.
ASU's new black flame helmets for their Shamrock Classic game vs ND this weekend..
I love this instrumental
@jwoude23 bear down Your article is unpublished. Rourke is putting up the Atlanta one right now. I have said this several times now.
@jwoude23 bear down it was unpublished o.O
@jwoude23 bear down What link are you talking about?
@Doctor ϟ Professor ☧ I unpublished it is why.
@Doctor ϟ Professor ☧ Learn Internets.
@Donny_Donowitz33 It will effect the Minority... the Majority will go on oblivious because all major functions will still be working as normal.
@jwoude23 bear down Sorry. Rourke told me to unpublish it.
@jwoude23 bear down error for me. not on main page either
@jwoude23 bear down bears drop ball? really... Lions pounded that ass worse than hernandez in jail.
@jwoude23 bear down Thanks
@jwoude23 bear down CLUTCHLER!
@You F#cking Chernobyl Motha F#ckers That kid looks like he should still be in Pop Warner.
@You F#cking Chernobyl Motha F#ckers JVince,it's you?
@You F#cking Chernobyl Motha F#ckers the arms look like a poor superhero
@Staffords_Glove 10 likes. Someone owes him a blowjob.
@Doctor ϟ Professor ☧ I just said that in the other article that noone can get to.
@Doctor ϟ Professor ☧ Now we're just calling Nate names over there.
@Doctor ϟ Professor ☧ Nope, I'm not falling for your tricks.
@Doctor ϟ Professor ☧ I'm posting about your on the article right now.
@Doctor ϟ Professor ☧ looks like it was taken down right away, its still pending
@Maized and Confused Woody on the street threatening me would cause me to go into fits of laughter.